LEADER 00000cam  2200000 a 4500 
001    ocn780480483 
003    OCoLC 
005    20121005044210.0 
008    120703s2012    nyua     b    001 0 eng   
010      2012027308 
020    9781594204111|qhardback|c$27.95 
020    159420411X|qhardback 
035    (Sirsi) i9781594204111 
035    (Sirsi) i9781594204111 
035    (OCoLC)780480483 
035    (Sirsi) i9781594204111 
040    DLC|beng|cDLC|dIG#|dBTCTA|dBDX|dWIM|dOCLCO|dUPZ|dRNC|dIK2
       |dYDXCP|dJQM|dVP@ 
049    CKEA 
050 00 CB158|b.S54 2012 
082 00 519.5/42|223 
100 1  Silver, Nate,|d1978- 
245 14 The signal and the noise :|bwhy most predictions fail-- 
       but some don't /|cNate Silver. 
264  1 New York :|bPenguin Press,|c2012. 
300    534 pages :|billustrations ;|c25 cm 
336    text|btxt|2rdacontent 
337    unmediated|bn|2rdamedia 
338    volume|bnc|2rdacarrier 
504    Includes bibliographical references (pages 459-514) and 
       index. 
505 0  A catastrophic failure of prediction  --  Are you smarter 
       than a television pundit?  --  All I care about is W's and
       L's  --  For years you've been telling us that rain is 
       green  --  Desperately seeking signal  --  How to drown in
       three feet of water  --  Role models  --  Less and less 
       and less wrong  --  Rage against the machines  --  The 
       poker bubble  --  If you can't beat 'em  --  A climate of 
       healthy skepticism  --  What you don't know can hurt you. 
520    Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball 
       performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair's 
       breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. 
       Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines 
       the world of prediction. 
650  0 Forecasting. 
650  0 Forecasting|xMethodology. 
650  0 Forecasting|xHistory. 
650  0 Bayesian statistical decision theory. 
650  0 Knowledge, Theory of. 
914    MID.b22346260 
914    FARM192375 
994    92|bCKE