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008    051103s2004    caua    ob    000 0 eng c 
019    191037698 
020    9780833057983|q(electronic bk.) 
020    0833057987|q(electronic bk.) 
035    (OCoLC)62211804|z(OCoLC)191037698 
037    22573/ctt5ckv|bJSTOR 
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050  4 RA564.8|b.H453 2004 
060  4 WT 31|bH4344 2004 
082 04 613/.0438/097301|222 
245 00 Health status and medical treatment of the future elderly 
       :|bfinal report /|cDana P. Goldman [and others]. 
264  1 Santa Monica, CA :|bRAND,|c[2004] 
264  4 |c©2004 
300    1 online resource (xxxv, 228 pages) :|billustrations 
336    text|btxt|2rdacontent 
337    computer|bc|2rdamedia 
338    online resource|bcr|2rdacarrier 
500    "TR-169-CMS, August 2004, prepared for the Centers for 
       Medicare and Medicaid Services." 
504    Includes bibliographical references (pages 214-228). 
505 00 |tProspects for medical advances in the 21st century --
       |tThe medical expert panels --|tThe future elderly model 
       (FEM) --|tHealth expenditures --|tHealth status --|tThe 
       health status of future Medicare entering cohorts --
       |tScenarios --|tUsefulness to the Office of the Actuary --
       |tConclusions. 
520    The ability to predict future health care costs reasonably
       accurately is critical to planning for the Centers for 
       Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). The models used for 
       such projections to date, however, are limited in terms of
       their capacity to take into account the complex array of 
       factors likely to affect future spending. To improve CMS's
       ability to map the effects on spending of such factors as 
       medical breakthroughs and demographic trends, RAND Health 
       developed the Future Elderly Model (FEM), a demographic-
       economic model framework of health spending projections 
       that enables the user to answer "what-if" questions about 
       the effects of changes in health status and disease 
       treatment on future health care costs. What distinguishes 
       the FEM from other models is its inclusion of a 
       multidimensional characterization of health status, which 
       allows the user to include a richer set of demographic 
       controls as well as comorbid conditions and functional 
       status. This report describes the development of the FEM 
       and its application in four clinical areas: cardiovascular
       disease, the biology of aging and cancer, neurological 
       disease, and changes in health care services. Beside those
       involved in planning at the Centers for Medicare and 
       Medicaid Services, it should be of interest to health 
       policy planners and health economists. 
588 0  Online resource; title from home title page (RAND, viewed 
       on Oct. 8, 2012). 
650  0 Older people|xHealth and hygiene|zUnited States
       |xForecasting. 
650  0 Older people|xMedical care|xEconomic aspects|zUnited 
       States. 
650  0 Medical care, Cost of|zUnited States|xForecasting. 
650  0 Medical care|zUnited States|xMathematical models. 
650  2 Aged. 
650  7 MEDICAL|xHealth Policy.|2bisacsh 
650 12 Health Expenditures|xtrends. 
650 12 Health Services for the Aged|xeconomics. 
651  2 United States. 
650 22 Health Planning. 
650 22 Health Status. 
650 22 Medicare|xeconomics. 
650 22 Population Dynamics. 
700 1  Goldman, Dana P.|q(Dana Paul),|d1966- 
710 2  Rand Corporation. 
776 08 |iPrint version:|tHealth status and medical treatment of 
       the future elderly.|dSanta Monica, CA : RAND, ©2004
       |z083303653X|w(DLC)  2004012328|w(OCoLC)55502502 
914    ocm62211804 
994    92|bCKE