Title Confronting Emergent Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries : Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management / by Forrest E. Morgan, David T. Orletsky, Ryan Henry, Roger C. Molander, Ely Ratner, Robert Reardon, Heather Peterson, Harun Dogo, Jessica Hart, Lisa Saum-Manning.

Publication Info.	Santa Monica, Calif. : RAND, [2015]
	©2015

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Description	1 online resource (xxiii, 99 pages) : color illustrations, color charts.
Series	Research report ; RR-974-AF
	Research report (Rand Corporation) ; RR-974-AF.
Note	"October 27, 2015"--Table of contents page.
Bibliography	Includes bibliographical references (pages 89-99).
Contents	In Memoriam -- Preface -- Figures and Table -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- 1. An Emerging National Security Challenge: Introduction -- Purpose of This Research -- Research Methodology -- How This Report Is Organized -- 2. Bringing the Challenge into Focus: The Blurred Nuclear Threshold -- Third-Party Considerations -- These Factors Increase Risks of Conflict Escalation -- Dilemmas for U.S. Decisionmakers -- 3. Assessing the Neutralization Options: The Adversary's Range of Options -- Potential Ways to Neutralize an Adversary's Nuclear Capabilities -- Concluding Observations 4. Managing Escalation in Crisis and War -- The Principles of Threshold Management -- Managing Escalation in Three Geostrategic Challenges -- Looking at the Larger Picture -- 5. Meeting the Challenge -- The Regional Nuclear Paradox -- Crafting Strategies for Escalation Management -- Putting These Observations in Today's Geostrategic Context -- Recommendations for the U.S. Air Force -- Appendix A. The Second Nuclear Age -- Appendix B. The Inadequacy of Cold War Concepts -- Abbreviations -- References.
Summary	"Risks are increasing that the United States will find itself in confrontations with nuclear-armed regional adversaries--that is, hostile states with small nuclear arsenals. This research seeks to help the U.S. Air Force understand and prepare for such confrontations. The authors explore circumstances in which the United States might be able to neutralize a regional opponent's nuclear capabilities, and describe how and in what circumstances the United States can manage escalation while defeating nuclear-armed opponents in conventional conflict. The analysis finds that there is probably no case in which U.S. forces could neutralize an opponent's nuclear capabilities with a high enough probability of success that U.S. leaders would let them attempt it. However, U.S. forces should be able to manage escalation in some conventional conflicts, as long as the United States does not threaten the survival of the enemy regime or its nuclear deterrent forces. U.S. leaders must deter the adversary from escalating above critical U.S. thresholds and manage U.S. forces to avoid inadvertent and accidental escalation. The authors recommend that the Air Force continue research and development on methods and capabilities to find, fix, track, target, and assess enemy nuclear weapons capabilities; continue research and development on ballistic and cruise missile defenses; and conduct research on how to rebalance the force to better enable posturing airpower to conduct conventional strike operations from afar, in order to defeat a nuclear-armed regional adversary's conventional forces while operating from bases beyond the range of its conventional and nuclear strike capabilities"--Publisher's description.
Note	Online resource; title from PDF title page (RAND, viewed November 06, 2015).
Subject	Nuclear weapons -- Government policy -- United States -- 21st century.
	Nuclear arms control -- Government policy -- United States -- 21st century.
	Escalation (Military science)
	Deterrence (Strategy)
	Conflict management -- 21st century.
	Security, International -- 21st century.
	Military planning -- United States -- 21st century.
	United States -- Military policy -- 21st century.
	HISTORY -- Military -- Aviation.
	Conflict management. (OCoLC)fst00874778
	Deterrence (Strategy) (OCoLC)fst00891658
	Escalation (Military science) (OCoLC)fst00915107
	Military planning. (OCoLC)fst01021370
	Military policy. (OCoLC)fst01021386
	Nuclear arms control -- Government policy. (OCoLC)fst01039886
	Nuclear weapons -- Government policy. (OCoLC)fst01040980
	Security, International. (OCoLC)fst01110895
	United States. (OCoLC)fst01204155
Chronological Term	2000-2099
Added Author	Rand Corporation, issuing body.
Added Title	Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management
ISBN	9780833093356 (electronic bk.)
	0833093355 (electronic bk.)

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Title Confronting Emergent Nuclear-Armed Regional Adversaries : Prospects for Neutralization, Strategies for Escalation Management / by Forrest E. Morgan, David T. Orletsky, Ryan Henry, Roger C. Molander, Ely Ratner, Robert Reardon, Heather Peterson, Harun Dogo, Jessica Hart, Lisa Saum-Manning.

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