Title Whither al-Anbar Province? : five scenarios through 2011 / James B. Bruce, Jeffrey Martini.

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Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2010.

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Description	1 online resource (xiii, 12 pages).
Series	Occasional paper ; OP-278-MCIA
	Occasional paper (Rand Corporation) ; OP-278-MCIA.
Bibliography	Includes bibliographical references.
Summary	The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq will create a vacuum in the way security is achieved and power is exercised throughout Iraq. As U.S. Marines draw down in al-Anbar Province, significant changes can be expected throughout the province in security, political, economic, and even cultural relationships. In late 2008, RAND convened a series of three one-day workshops bringing together civilian and military analysts and practitioners with experience on al-Anbar Province or comparable expertise on Iraq. Workshops participants identified five relatively distinct futures, or scenarios, for al-Anbar that provide plausible but alternative trajectories for the province between early 2009 and the end of 2011. These scenarios resulted from extensive consideration of the major assumptions that may underlie any future projections and the testing of those assumptions in a variety of exercises. The deliberations also focused on the major factors that will shape the development of one or another scenario.
Contents	Executive summary -- What does the future hold for Iraq's al-Anbar Province? -- How this study was conducted -- Implications -- Major takeaways -- Study approach -- Assumptions -- Drivers -- Scenario A: Sunni fight for survival -- Scenario B: Every clan for itself -- Scenario C: Iron fist -- Scenario D: Glueless in Baghdad -- Scenario E: Path to stability -- The importance of drivers -- Indications and warnings -- Conclusions and implications.
Note	Print version record.
Subject	Iraq War (2003-2011) (OCoLC)fst01802311
	Social prediction -- Iraq -- Anbār (Province) -- Case studies -- Congresses.
	Social change -- Iraq -- Anbār (Province) -- Congresses.
	Iraq War, 2003-2011 -- Influence -- Congresses.
	Disengagement (Military science) -- Congresses.
	Anbār (Iraq : Province) -- Politics and government -- 21st century -- Forecasting -- Congresses.
	Anbār (Iraq : Province) -- Social conditions -- 21st century -- Forecasting -- Congresses.
	Anbār (Iraq : Province) -- Economic conditions -- 21st century -- Forecasting -- Congresses.
	United States.
	HISTORY -- General.
	HISTORY -- Middle East -- General.
	Disengagement (Military science) (OCoLC)fst00895213
	Economic history -- Forecasting. (OCoLC)fst01352842
	Influence (Literary, artistic, etc.) (OCoLC)fst00972484
	Politics and government -- Forecasting. (OCoLC)fst01919762
	Social change. (OCoLC)fst01122310
	Social history -- Forecasting. (OCoLC)fst01354993
	Social prediction. (OCoLC)fst01122769
	Iraq. (OCoLC)fst01205757
	Iraq -- Anbār (Province) (OCoLC)fst01696893
	United States. (OCoLC)fst01204155
Chronological Term	2000-2099
Genre/Form	Conference papers and proceedings. (OCoLC)fst01423772
Added Author	Martini, Jeffrey.
	Intelligence Policy Center (U.S.)
	United States. Marine Corps Intelligence Activity.
Other Form:	Print version: Bruce, James B. Whither al-Anbar Province? Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2010 9780833048035 (DLC) 2010004239 (OCoLC)503596150
ISBN	9780833050816 (electronic bk.)
	0833050818 (electronic bk.)
Report No.	RAND/OP-278-MCIA

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Title Whither al-Anbar Province? : five scenarios through 2011 / James B. Bruce, Jeffrey Martini.

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