| Description |
xi, 305 pages ; 24 cm |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages [267]-294) and index. |
| Contents |
Introduction -- The unpredictable world -- In the minds of experts -- The experts agree : expect much more of the same -- Unsettled by uncertainty -- Everyone loves a hedgehog -- When prophets fail -- The end is nigh. |
| Summary |
Draws on landmark research to debunk the methods of the expert prediction industry, exploring the psychology behind the human drive to foretell history in spite of typically inaccurate forecasts. |
| Subject |
Uncertainty.
|
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Fallacies (Logic)
|
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Thought and thinking.
|
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Perception.
|
| ISBN |
9780525952053 hardcover |
|
0525952055 hardcover |
|
