| Edition |
First US edition. |
| Description |
434 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm |
| Note |
"Originally published in 2023 by Quercus, an Hachette UK company, in Great Britain." |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (pages 409-434). |
| Summary |
"How can you be a hundred percent sure you will win a bet? Why did so many Pompeiians stay put while Mount Vesuvius was erupting? Are you more likely to work in a kitchen if your last name is Baker? Ever since the dawn of human civilization, we have been trying to make predictions about what the world has in store for us. For just as long, we have been getting it wrong. In How to Expect the Unexpected, statistician Kit Yates uncovers the surprising science that undergirds our predictions - and how we can use it to our advantage. From religious oracles to weather forecasters, and from politicians to economists, we are subjected to poor predictions all the time. Synthesizing results from math, biology, psychology, sociology, medicine, economic theory, and physics, Yates provides tools for readers to understand uncertainty and to recognize the cognitive biases that make accurate predictions so hard to come by. This book, geared for readers of popular math, science, and behavioral economics will teach you how and why predictions go wrong, help you to spot phony forecasts and give you a better chance of getting your own predictions correct"-- Provided by publisher. |
| Contents |
Expecting the unexpected -- Gut feelings -- Expecting the everyday extraordinary -- Mastering uncertainty -- Changing your mind -- Playing the game -- Reading between the lines -- Dodging snowballs -- Catching boomerangs -- Knowing your limits. |
| Subject |
Forecasting.
|
|
Forecasting -- Psychological aspects.
|
|
Probabilities.
|
|
Uncertainty.
|
|
Prophecies.
|
|
probability. (CStmoGRI)aat300055653
|
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SCIENCE / Cognitive Science.
|
| ISBN |
9781541604933 (hardcover) |
|
1541604938 |
|
9781541604940 (ebook) |
|
