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Author Tetlock, Philip E. (Philip Eyrikson), 1954- author.

Title Superforecasting : the art and science of prediction / Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner.

Publication Info. New York : Crown Publishers, [2015]
©2015.

Copies

Location Call No. Status
 Bristol, Main Library - Non Fiction  303.49 TETLOCK    Check Shelf
 Enfield, Main Library - Adult Department  303.49 TET    Check Shelf
 Glastonbury, Welles-Turner Memorial Library - Adult Department  303.49 TETLOCK    Check Shelf
 Middletown, Russell Library - Adult Nonfiction  303.49 TET    Check Shelf
 Newington, Lucy Robbins Welles Library - Adult Department  303.49 TETLOCK    Check Shelf
 Plainville Public Library - Non Fiction  303.49 TET    Check Shelf
 Portland Public Library - Adult Department  303.49 TET    Check Shelf
 Rocky Hill, Cora J. Belden Library - Adult Department  303.49 TETLOCK    Check Shelf
 Southington Library - Adult  303.49 TET    Check Shelf
 West Hartford, Noah Webster Library - Non Fiction  303.49 TETLOCK    Check Shelf
Edition First edition.
Description 340 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references (pages [291]-328) and index.
Contents An Optimistic Skeptic -- Illusions of Knowledge -- Keeping Score -- Superforecasters -- Supersmart? -- Superquants? -- Supernewsjunkies? -- Perpetual Beta -- Superteams -- The Leader's Dilemma -- Are They Really So Super? -- What's Next? -- Epilogue -- An Invitation -- Appendix: Ten Commandments for ASpiring Superforecasters -- Acknowledgments -- Notes -- Index.
Summary A highly regarded social scientist draws on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament to present effective methods for improving the ability to predict the future.
"From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"-- Provided by publisher.
Subject BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting.
SOCIAL SCIENCE / Future Studies.
PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology.
Economic forecasting.
Forecasting.
Economic forecasting. (OCoLC)fst00901942
Forecasting. (OCoLC)fst00931721
Added Author Gardner, Dan, 1968- author.
ISBN 9780804136693 (hardback)
0804136696 (hardback)
9780804136716 (paperback)
0804136718 (paperback)
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