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001    on1091623831 
003    OCoLC 
005    20200419054741.2 
006    m     o  d         
007    cr cnu|||unuuu 
008    190405s2019    sz a    o     000 0 eng d 
015    GBB970108|2bnb 
016 7  019340739|2Uk 
019    1091249516|a1099789743|a1103269413|a1107369761|a1111041435
       |a1122810489|a1125762385|a1136372085 
020    9783030050757|q(electronic book) 
020    3030050750|q(electronic book) 
020    9783030050764|q(print) 
020    |z9783030050740|q(print) 
020    3030050769 
020    |z3030050742 
024 7  10.1007/978-3-030-05075-7|2doi 
035    (OCoLC)1091623831|z(OCoLC)1091249516|z(OCoLC)1099789743
       |z(OCoLC)1103269413|z(OCoLC)1107369761|z(OCoLC)1111041435
       |z(OCoLC)1122810489|z(OCoLC)1125762385|z(OCoLC)1136372085 
037    com.springer.onix.9783030050757|bSpringer Nature 
040    GW5XE|beng|erda|epn|cGW5XE|dYDX|dUKMGB|dUPM|dMERER|dOCLCF
       |dVT2|dEBLCP|dOCLCQ|dLEATE|dOCLCQ 
049    STJJ 
050  4 HB1321 
072  7 JHBD|2bicssc 
072  7 SOC006000|2bisacsh 
072  7 JHBD|2thema 
082 04 304.6/4|223 
245 00 Old and new perspectives on mortality forecasting /|cTommy
       Bengtsson, Nico Keilman, editors. 
264  1 Cham, Switzerland :|bSpringer,|c2019. 
300    1 online resource (xi, 349 pages) :|billustrations (some 
       color). 
336    text|btxt|2rdacontent 
337    computer|bc|2rdamedia 
338    online resource|bcr|2rdacarrier 
347    text file|bPDF|2rda 
490 1  Demographic research monographs,|x1613-5520 
505 0  Ch 1. Introduction: Tommy Bengtsson, Nico Keilman, Juha 
       Alho, Kaare Christensen, Edward Palmer, James W. Vaupel: 
       SECTION 1. Current practice: Introduction by Tommy 
       Bengtsson and Nico Keilman.- Ch 2. Life Expectancy is 
       Taking Center Place in Modern National Pension Schemes -- 
       A New Challenge for the Art of Projecting Mortality: 
       Edward Palmer .- Ch 3. Experiences from Forecasting 
       Mortality in Finland: Juha Alho.- Ch 4. Mortality 
       Projections in Norway: Helge Brunborg.- Ch 5. Mortality 
       Assumptions for Sweden. The 2000-2050 Population 
       Projection: Hans Lundström.- Ch 6. Forecasting Life 
       Expectancy: The SCOPE Approach: James W. Vaupel.- Ch 7. 
       Mortality Forecasts. Comments on How to Improve Existing 
       Models -- an Epidemiologist's Perspective: Kaare 
       Christensen.- Ch 8. The Need for Looking Far Back in Time 
       When Predicting Future Mortality Trends: Tommy Bengtsson.-
       SECTION 2. Probabilistic models: Introduction by Nico 
       Keilman.- Ch 9. Erroneous Population Forecasts: Nico 
       Keilman.- Ch 10. Remarks on the Use of Probabilities in 
       Demography and Forecasting: Juha M. Alho.- Ch 11. An 
       Expert Knowledge Approach to Stochastic Mortality 
       Forecasting in the Netherlands: Maarten Alders and Joop de
       Beer.- Ch 12. Stochastic Forecasts of Mortality, 
       Population and Pension Systems: Shripad Tuljapurkar.- 
       SECTION 3. The linear rise in life expectancy: History and
       prospects: Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson.- Ch 13. The 
       Linear Rise in the Number of Our Days: Jim Oeppen and 
       James W. Vaupel.- Ch 14. Mortality Forecasts and Linear 
       Life Expectancy Trends: Ronald Lee.- Ch 15. Forecasting 
       Life Expectancy: A Statistical Look at Model Choice and 
       Use of Auxiliary Series: Juha M. Alho.- Ch 16. Life 
       Expectancy Convergence among Nations since 1820: 
       Separating the Effects of Technology and Income: Jim 
       Oeppen.- Ch 17. Linear Increase in Life Expectancy: Past 
       and Present: Tommy Bengtsson.- SECTION 4. Causes of death:
       Introduction by Tommy Bengtsson and Kaare Christensen.- Ch
       18. How Useful Are the Causes of Death When Extrapolating 
       Mortality Trends. An Update: Graziella Caselli, Jacques 
       Vallin and Marco Marsili.- Ch 19. Forecasting Life 
       Expectancy and Mortality in Sweden -- Some Comments on 
       Methodological Problems and Potential Approaches: Måns 
       Rosén.- Ch 20. How Analysis of Mortality by Cause of Death
       is Currently Influencing UK Forecasts: Richard Willets.- 
       SECTION 5. Cohort factors: How conditions in early life 
       influence mortality later in life: Introduction by Tommy 
       Bengtsson.- Ch 21. A Life Course Perspective to the Modern
       Secular Mortality Decline and Socioeconomic Differences in
       Morbidity and Mortality in Sweden: Martin Lindström and 
       George Davey Smith.- Ch 22. Early Life Events and Later 
       Life Health: Twin and Famine Studies: Kaare Christensen.- 
       Ch 23. The Month of Birth: Evidence for Declining but 
       Persistent Cohort Effects in Lifespan: Gabriele 
       Doblhammer.- Ch 24. Early-Life Conditions and Old-Age 
       Mortality in a Comparative Perspective:19th Century Sweden
       and Belgium: Tommy Bengtsson and George Alter. 
506 0  Open access.|5GW5XE 
520    This open access book describes methods of mortality 
       forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It 
       contains a selection of previously unpublished and 
       published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-
       art overview of statistical approaches as well as 
       behavioural and biological perspectives. The different 
       parts of the book provide discussions of current practice,
       probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase 
       of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of 
       cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it
       is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if
       so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a 
       valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries,
       and all those interested and/or working in modelling and 
       forecasting mortality." 
588 0  Online resource; title from PDF title page (SpringerLink, 
       viewed April 5, 2019). 
590    SpringerLink|bSpringer Nature Open Access eBooks 
650  0 Mortality|xStatistical methods. 
650  7 Mortality|xStatistical methods.|2fast|0(OCoLC)fst01026528 
700 1  Bengtsson, Tommy,|eeditor. 
700 1  Keilman, Nico,|eeditor. 
776 08 |iPrint version:|tOld and new perspectives on mortality 
       forecasting.|dCham, Switzerland : Springer, 2019
       |z3030050742|z9783030050740|w(OCoLC)1059320591 
830  0 Demographic research monographs.|x1613-5520 
914    on1091623831 
994    92|bSTJ