LEADER 00000cam  22005058i 4500 
001    ocn898909721 
003    OCoLC 
005    20151001191122.0 
008    150506s2015    nyu      b    001 0 eng   
010      2015007310 
020    9780804136693|q(hardback) 
020    0804136696|q(hardback) 
020    9780804136716|q(paperback) 
020    0804136718|q(paperback) 
035    (OCoLC)898909721 
040    DLC|beng|erda|cDLC|dYDXCP|dBTCTA|dBDX|dOCLCO|dOCLCF|dON8
       |dTUU|dON8|dWHP 
042    pcc 
049    WHPP 
050 00 HB3730|b.T47 2015 
082 00 303.49|223 
084    BUS086000|aSOC037000|aPSY008000|2bisacsh 
100 1  Tetlock, Philip E.|q(Philip Eyrikson),|d1954-|eauthor. 
245 10 Superforecasting :|bthe art and science of prediction /
       |cPhilip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner. 
250    First edition. 
264  1 New York :|bCrown Publishers,|c[2015] 
264  4 |c©2015. 
300    340 pages :|billustrations ;|c25 cm 
336    text|btxt|2rdacontent 
337    unmediated|bn|2rdamedia 
338    volume|bnc|2rdacarrier 
504    Includes bibliographical references (pages [291]-328) and 
       index. 
505 0  An Optimistic Skeptic -- Illusions of Knowledge -- Keeping
       Score -- Superforecasters -- Supersmart? -- Superquants? -
       - Supernewsjunkies? -- Perpetual Beta -- Superteams -- The
       Leader's Dilemma -- Are They Really So Super? -- What's 
       Next? -- Epilogue -- An Invitation -- Appendix: Ten 
       Commandments for ASpiring Superforecasters -- 
       Acknowledgments -- Notes -- Index. 
520    A highly regarded social scientist draws on decades of 
       research and the results of a massive, government-funded 
       forecasting tournament to present effective methods for 
       improving the ability to predict the future. 
520    "From one of the world's most highly regarded social 
       scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind 
       that lead to the best predictions Everyone would benefit 
       from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks,
       crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply 
       planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to 
       be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip 
       Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' 
       predictions are only slightly better than chance. However,
       an important and underreported conclusion of that study 
       was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock 
       has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What 
       makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? 
       In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner 
       offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of 
       research and the results of a massive, government-funded 
       forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves
       tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn
       filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom
       dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the
       volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. 
       They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and 
       prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective 
       judgment of intelligence analysts with access to 
       classified information. They are "superforecasters." In 
       this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and 
       Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. 
       Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the 
       raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay 
       of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level 
       decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they
       show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful 
       computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering 
       evidence from a variety of sources, thinking 
       probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and 
       being willing to admit error and change course. 
       Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective 
       way to improve our ability to predict the future--whether 
       in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or 
       daily life--and is destined to become a modern classic"--
       |cProvided by publisher. 
650  0 Economic forecasting. 
650  0 Forecasting. 
650  7 BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Forecasting.|2bisacsh 
650  7 SOCIAL SCIENCE / Future Studies.|2bisacsh 
650  7 PSYCHOLOGY / Cognitive Psychology.|2bisacsh 
650  7 Economic forecasting.|2fast|0(OCoLC)fst00901942 
650  7 Forecasting.|2fast|0(OCoLC)fst00931721 
700 1  Gardner, Dan,|d1968-|eauthor. 
914    MID.b24445460 
994    02|bWHP